Scenarios are discussed here periodically and the point of doing so is to provoke thought and discussion. One of the difficulties with scenarios is to get multiple people to view the stated situation together as represented. It is not uncommon for many people to read the same narrative but then to interpret things quite differently. With that in mind, I present the following scenario.
Scenario Description: Two longtime friends very concerned about the future of this country decides to put together a MAG(mutual assistant group). One of the men is financially capable of purchasing a sizable parcel of land(10+ acres) to be located in a remote county in the mountainous regions of NC, GA, or Tennessee. Through discussions, the two friends decide that they are looking to add possibly 10 additional people to the group beyond the 10-12 current friends and family members perceived to be part of the group. Group size could total upwards of 22-25 people maximum.
The plan is to have all members come and stay at the property/retreat should some dire situation occur. It is important to note that some of these friends and family members are NOT preparedness-minded and will be welcomed regardless. Both men have decided that although these people have taken no steps to prepare themselves, they care enough to make preparations in lieu of the people’s inaction. For new members, considerations must be made to ensure they have MINIMAL amounts of necessary supplies.
The goal for this MAG is to provide sanctuary for group members in the event of an EMP, economic collapse – pr some other calamity. Time frame is unknown, thus planning for the stay at the retreat must be considered “long term” – whatever that means.
Lastly – the owner of the property will be living at the retreat. There will certainly not be ample room nor sanitation for all 20+ members.
Questions:
How much food should new members be required to have? Per individual? Per family? What is the minimum?
What requirements for security should be required? Which firearms and ammunition for each member? Each family? Magazines?
What about firearms training? Who performs the training?
How will these joining members be sheltered?
What medical supplies should be stored and in what quantity?
How are the potential members vetted? What requirements are related to the vetting process?
What considerations need to be made for the friends and family that are non-preppers and are lacking needed skills – such as those of a tactical nature?
Should joining members provide additional supplies with the thought that after THE EVENT it is possible that those needing help and have valuable skills would be welcomed into the group?
If so – – – what supplies and in what amount?
How would sanitation be handled?
What about requiring regular investment of time on the property for maintenance, upkeep, and to assist in completion of projects? Money?
The questions are endless. What event could occur that this MAG could face is any possibility you can imagine. How long would they need to stay at the retreat is unknown.
What are your thoughts? Please comment below.
Rourke
Oh – and by the way – I’ll throw my 2 cents in later this week with my own thoughts.
Very difficult to get consensus amongst family, much less people that don’t have some other common bond. I’m interested to hear any thoughts from people who have successfully combined resources for such an event. Got my popcorn… ready? Go!!
Ten acres of wooded hillside wouldn’t be enough for more than one small family, a couple farm animals, and a garden. For a project this size, I wouldn’t consider anything less than 100 acres with several water sources and large clearings. Sanitation and housing are both extremely important, so the whole idea would have to be put on hold until we figure out how to handle those things. Look realistically at what the property needs and can provide, then figure out how many people could live there. For myself, I wouldn’t want anyone but those I consider to be family, and if I was going into partnership with someone I’d want to be a full legal partner.
SingleMom, I think you have hit some very good points. I live on 20 acres of hilly, forested and rocky soil, in the general area cited. Only 5 acres are suitable for gardening, and I only have about 1 acre open. The current garden is about 1/4 acre. I can grow alot, but not enough for the number of people in the scenario. I agree with you. I would not consider anyone other than close family and the property would always remain in my name. Everyone else would be family, but guests. There is a reason for that approach.
I would sit down with the family and we would establish “rules” of conduct. Everyone would work. If you could not live with the rule to work, you would not be welcomed. Everyone would participate in site security. Everyone would be expected to learn to handle a firearm, an axe and a shovel. If any have big dogs (my son has a pair of Great Pyrenees) bring them. Same for live stock such as goats and donkeys. My son has all. I already have chickens and guineas.
SingleMom, you mentioned sanitation and housing. Big items. If you have a well for water, you cannot simply install another drain field to take care of a travel trailer etc. You have to site the drain field a minimum of 50 feet, hopefully a good deal more, from the well. On hilly property, you may have a problem. Personally, I see the issue of sanitation, mainly septic tank and drain field, as one of the biggest issues on a small piece of property. The drain field takes alot of space that could go to the garden. I personally would not want my garden growing over the drain field.
There is a lot to consider. Today is not a good day to sit and ponder this conundrum. Last night at about 0300, I apparently had a storm come thru. I have a double popular tree on the ground across one corner of my garden right now. I have fencing and a gate to put back not to mention the removal of the double tree. Both trunks are about 24-30 inches in diameter. I’ll be busy for a while. But on the bright side, I have plenty of firewood waiting to get blocked and split.
I’m getting too old for this stuff!
Oren, that’s pretty much what I was going on. In my teens, we moved to a little farmlet on 10 acres. We were only able to have a couple cows because it came with a small clearing, and we fed them primarily with bought feed and hay. It was also so hilly that the garden couldn’t be any bigger than 15’x20′, so all we grew was “eat now” vegetables and wound up buying most of what we ate. The nearest water source was 1/4 mile away at the bottom of a very steep hill. The only good thing about that place was the amount of firewood, which we did use to heat the house.
Good luck with your firewood, and I’m sorry about the tree.
In my humble opinion if the property is secluded with no neighbors around after a SHTF event you would be able to use as much neighboring property as you want, possession will be 10/10’s of the law after grid down no one will own property they aren’t using. As far as sanitation, I grew up with out houses until I was 15 we always had it at least 50 yards from well and our family of five moved it every two years or so, i think this could be done for a group of 20 on ten acres as well for the short term, once the world goes without rule of law we could establish drain fields on neighboring property, not ideal I agree, would be far better to have it done prior to the event I agree but if it’s about survival I think it could be done.
John,
Unfortunately my peace and quiet was destroyed a few years back when the acreage next too me was developed. There are now about 20 homes over there. Still, not too close, but I can hear them. I don’t like that. However, the gentleman behind me has about 50 acres. I’m sure I could work something with him to coop a piece. He is older than me…he is ancient. Only problem, you would have to camp out over the crop to keep it from walking away. I really hate having neighbors.
The quickest path to becoming worm food is to use neighboring property as you want. It’s not open season for my land just because someone decided to make bad choices.
While some may become lawless, there will always be laws, ethics, and right and wrong. If the land won’t support 20 people, then don’t invite 20 people.
I agree ten acres aren’t enough, I was thinking of 50 to 100 acres in my scenario
But depending upon terrain if you have a flat valley you should be able to manage this with minimum acreage,
20 people= 20 acres for example even a .5 acre per person like this scenario suggest if we assume it’s all flat growable land I think can still be done, is it ideal no it’s not, but if it’s secluded I’m sure my group would probably make plans for neighboring unused land and stage materials, as the group will not even live on the retreat until that day I think the limited land issue becomes mute when SHTF the limited property conundrum kind of solves itself because any unused neighboring land just got commandeered….
Great scenario exercise and one I think we all may benefit from. Ok here’s my thoughts for what it’s worth as Matt just mentioned this is going to be very difficult. I’ll start with what minimums a new group (mag) member should have in order to be a part of the group and try to explain why I feel they should have that as I go along. I’m going to pretend this is my group and this is how I would envision it playing out. I may be wrong.
1. One year supply of food per person.
The reason I feel that they should have a entire year supply of food up front is that the existing group members already have this and as a event could happen at any time the new member would be a burden on the rest of the group without it. Another reason maybe the event happens too late in the season to start a garden ( I think the first six months of a world without law it would be to dangerous to try start a large scale garden without putting a bullseye on your location essential making yourselves a target) and it’s going to be 9 or 10 months before you reach next harvest. What if you lose the garden it happens a lot.
2. For every adult of 16 years or older each member or family member of the “group member must have a semi-auto center fire riffle with side arm, they must have 3,000 rounds of ammo for the riffle and 500 rounds for their side arm. You must have 10 riffle mags and 6 pistol mags per riffle/pistol.
Long term self defense, defense of the group.
3. Medical first aid kit combat rated.
I think anyone responsible gun owner would agree if your going to carry a way to make holes you have to carry a way to plug them.
You must pay for and build a shed, buy a shed and put it in place or put your camper on the property within 6 months of joining.
Temporary outhouse or septic system must accompany this as it’s completed.
Over the next two years the group member has to acquire the following list of items.
1. One additional year supply of rice and beans per person. This will be for many different reasons. First is it will cover anyone that we want to bring into the sanctuary after the event has happened, for example a doctor his wife and two children are walking by with all the other thousands of people drifting from place to place and you one of the other group members are fortunate enough to meet him for what ever reason, we’ll it goes without saying that this man is a true asset to the group and the group would be very fortunate to have him, but there’s the problem he has a wife and two children that’s 4 mouths to feed! This scenario plays out for lot of different what I would call essential skill sets in people that would be worth saving.
Another reason is we all as a group have a set number of people we planned to have enough food for, but what if when SHTF your brother from the other side of the country is staying at your house visiting? Or your mom, you kid? You never know when SHTF is going to happen and with a group of 20 to 25 people I’d say that it’s probable that this to happen to one or two group members… your not going to leave your loved one there, that’s unrealistic.
Finally my last reason is probably the most likely of scenarios, I grew up on a farm and we were poor as dirt, meaning we didn’t have money for pesticides, fertilizer, weed killer and anything else that cost money to save crops so we lost more than a few… the likelyhood of this happening is extremely high in my opinion and let’s not forget depending on the timing we could be as far as ten months initially from the first harvest so without that additional year of beans and rice were pretty much GAME OVER.
700 pounds of beans and rice is a one year supply if you shop you can get a year supply for $600.00
2. AR style 22 long riffle for training to conserve combat/hunting Ammo. Plus 5,000 rounds of 22LR
AR STYLE 22LR $350.00
5000 rounds 22LR $200.00
I like going to range, I go often, at least once a month to keep up my shooting skills, every time I go to the range which is normally once a month (I’d like to go more but like most have a busy lifestyle) I usually shoot between 200 and 300 rounds per visit. Marksmanship is very much a perishable skill and must be practiced st stay sharp I find this to be especially true with my side arm. So if you need let’s call it 300 rounds per month to stay on target that’s 3600 rounds of ammo, you can buy 10,000 rounds of 22 LR $400. It’s not that bad.
3. One hunting riffle or shotgun with 500 rounds.
Cost depends on gun.
4. More extensive first aid supply designed to cover all of you and your family’s medical needs including a assortment of antibiotic’s.
Approximately $500.00 cost
5. Heirloom seed bank extensive.
Cost of seeds $200.00
All additional items would have to be completed within two years and there would be progress verification required, exceptions made for extreme hardships
Let me say up front that I’ve always had problems seeing how these larger prepper/ survival groups could work. I foresee conflict and ego clashes tearing the group apart, but lets assume that’s not the case here. Lets also assume that most in this group fit the mold of your average American with the average American’s responsibilities and financial obligations: rent/mortgage payment, car payments and all the normal costs of living. In other words money is a somewhat limiting factor for most in the group, though enthusiasm is not. Unlike how some may envision a survival group working, top down, military style, with matching weaponry and calibers and everyone outfitted the same, I’m not following that system.
Lets tackle the issue of food 1st since in my mind it’s the most important:
GET A WELL DUG AND FUNCTIONING!
NEXT, I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect each group member to acquire a year’s supply of food, so each member will have to be responsible for feeding their self and their own for a minimum of 3 months. With only 10 or so acres hunting is out as a reliable means of sourcing food. The group will have to donate the funds to acquire some calves/cows, chickens, maybe some goats and the fencing materials, chicken coup, feed and such. They will need to donate the time needed to build the coup and fencing. The livestock would have to be in numbers so that the year round resident could take care of them.
At some point food storage would become an issue, canned goods will last a long time but only if they aren’t subjected to wide temperature fluctuations. A root cellar would be the cheapest solution. Everything needed to can food will need to be on site and ready when needed.
If a working garden of adequate size isn’t created from the start, everything needed to do so will need to be on site and ready to go.
SHELTER:
I suspect that due to costs it’s unrealistic that structures could be built to house all members of the group. At least in the beginning each member would be responsible for their own shelter. While some may have the funds to install out buildings or tiny houses, others could use campers, pop-ups or even tents. While this is a group setting, each member needs to be responsible for their own existence, and quality there of.
Great comments from all!! Really fantastic and I like the thinking everyone is having.
As I mentioned in the post itself I’m going to throw my 2 cents in with a separate post. No one persons opinion will be 100% correct, nor 100% wrong. The specifics of any situation are so variable that it is difficult to provide a complete answer to the scenario that will match what everyone has in their mind.
I will add that this – the building of a survival group – is a monumental and difficult task. Mr. Gault suggested as such and he is correct. Finding people that can all get along, compromise, and communicate with some sense of civility with each other is difficult.
One thing that I hope this post(and the next with my thoughts) will do is promote thought on the need for a group of some type. The notion that a family of 4 can make it in a true grid down SHTF is unrealistic at best. Again, event specifics may allow it, however, the number of tasks to be done over the long term is just far above that being able to be completed by two adults, a teenager, and a child.
Thanks for all the responses and please keep the ideas coming.
Sooo.. the tough part of the scenario, is not having family know about anything or being on board.
They have to know something or they won’t know where to go or when to leave, unless you arrange to tell them. Telephone, radio, something.. They need to know when and where. If I called anyone not in the know and told them, they had to leave, and NOW. And directions for where to go.. What would they do? Probably hang up and do nothing, with or without telling me I’m crazy.
The presumption is then that they have a minimum of information, and agree to some conditions.
I’m fully on board with supporting partially prepared family members. I have them. Specifically children and their significant others. They need to bring clothing, valuables and as much food as they can carry, or purchase. Of course whether they are completely on board, or not, is not the point. I am aware of an inventory of their skills and have planned around it. We can work around it and they will need to pitch in and learn as they do so. Training with all tools is a must. A firearm is a tool, just like a knife or a hammer, but with 2-3 very specific purposes. They have to be safe and proficient, whether that is obtained before or after they arrive, is up to the situation. Anyone in addition to that would need to be ON board, and prepared with skills and supplies for themselves, and anybody they bring. Baring that they would need to have valuable skills or they will not be part of the MAG in the first place.
Security is touchy too. Will they practice OpSec or ill they talk about what they are doing and where they are going. Operational security is a must, if no then they need to be prepared to turn strangers away, if they don’t have anything to offer we need badly enough for the, to stay. Additionally for security, everyone would be need to provide perimeter and over watch security while everyone else is working or sleeping. The tricky part is whether they are dependable and won’t sleep or be inattentive. People who fail in their responsibilities endanger everyone else and need to experience some consequence for failure. Doesn’t have to be really bad, just something to encourage safety and responsibility.
If the MAG member is not going to be trained then whomever sponsors them, plans to supply them, or they can’t come. If they bring all or partial resources and pledge them to the group, then its gravy.
Personally IF I own the location, I run it. It isn’t a democracy, until I am no longer able, then they can vote or agree to do whatever they want. My preference would be my heirs by birth take over what I leave as far as control. If someone doesn’t like it they can leave, or state their case and we’ll decide what to do. Everyone should have input, but no the final decision. IMO
GG58
You make some good points, as does John Handcock. GG58, in regard to your “Personally IF I own the location, I run it. It isn’t a democracy”. While I understand your mindset, my feelings are this: Anyone that I have invited to shelter (with families) at my 43 acre compound in rural Georgia has been invited because I more than trust them. I trust them not to wet the bed, sh*t themselves, or otherwise run around like headless Nancys when things get sketchy. Certainly in many respects they are better equipped both physically and mentally than myself. I trust their intentions, I value their knowledge, judgement and their counsel. These invitees, along with myself will make all the decisions, collectively, cooperatively…
I get it and I tried to apply what was stated in the scenario .. before I decide to go strictly democratic.
they are looking to add possibly 10 additional people to the group beyond the 10-12 current friends and family members perceived to be part of the group. Group size could total upwards of 22-25 people maximum.
“It is important to note that some of these friends and family members are NOT preparedness-minded” and “Both men have decided that although these people have taken no steps to prepare themselves, they care enough to make preparations in lieu of the people’s inaction.” then ” For new members, considerations must be made to ensure they have MINIMAL amounts of necessary supplies.”
I tried to imply by saying everyone gets input, but the final decision is mine, as a way that some get a vote and some don’t. For instance “Ohhh.. they are hungry give them food, let them stay, pool all peoples supplies together so EVERYONE can eat” or whatever. A fine sentiment but not a survival strategy at all. i.e. If they don’t know what they are talking about, then they need to learn some things before they get a full vote. Or if they are on security and spend the whole time watching videos, or God forbid bragging about their good fortune or worse where they are “with all the stuff they have”.. See What I am saying ? OpSec was where I was going with that .. and probably should have provided more detail.. sorry. So the They will be welcomed, has to be provisional. let’s say they don’t like the way you dress, or talk, or smell or whatever .. In a democracy they could vote YOU off the Island you sacrificed to provide. Every situation will be different of course and if they were all vetted by me a democracy, or perhaps a republic is the way I’d prefer it to be so people own what they decide to support, and are committed to it. Call it human engineering. I thought the scenario was that we had a 40-50% vetted only by relation, rather than skill set or anything more than relative personality and familiarity to some members in the MAG. If I read it wrong, well I do tend to over think things. Bottom line I am open to a lot as long as it doesn’t sacrifice the viability of the MAG and safety of my family (my mos important point IMO). Further if you have a severe disagreement some one will have to make the call as to whether they leave or fire up the backhoe. (tongue in cheek obviously– but still)
SECURITY, GUNS & AMMO:
Each main member would submit a list of what they have and who in their family would be agreeable to weapons training. I think it’s preferable & safer that those averse to guns not be forced to participate. A head count of those willing to participate is matched to the weapons already in members possession. Obvious weapon shortages would need to be addressed. I suspect that this shortage would be minimal as many interested in joining this type of group would already be well stocked, and have multiples of various weapons that could be used by others. I’ll use myself as an example; I could easily outfit 5 or 6 people with some type of semi auto long gun and/or pistol. I don’t believe it’s necessary for members to all have matching weapons in matching calibers. If someone already has a mini 30 carbine and 600/700 rounds of ammo, why insist on him spending the money to get an AR and a stockpile of 5.56 ammo, that money would be better utilized paying for other vital necessities; food, shelter, a source of heat for winter, feed for livestock, you get the picture. I do believe that minimum ammo count requirements for whatever calibers are being used by the members would be a good idea.
General weapons training would be lead by the most obvious choice, those with the most experience. Additional ‘specialized’ training would be done based on the position certain members are filling in the security scheme. Example could be long range sniper, or gate keeper shotgun tactics….
All good points whether I provide or they bring. Everyone needs a tool if they are going to use them at the same time right ?
Yup. And in preparation for the unfortunate event that things turn sour, non trigger pullers should at least be trained on loading magazines and other support duties.