For more information on the American Reformation see this article – the first in the series.
What awaits citizens of the United States during the coming American Reformation is up for debate. While everyone has their opinion far too many are absolutely certain as to what will happen and what the conditions will be like. I’m still trying to figure out how these folks haven’t won the lottery as their ability to predict the future with such incredible accuracy is truly astounding. All sarcasm aside – there is a difference between having an opinion and stating for a fact what is coming.
Here is my opinion on the conditions which will be present during the American Reformation.
A few general thoughts:
- Conditions will vary greatly depending upon geographic conditions on a local and state level.
- Conditions will vary greatly depending on economic conditions on a local and state level.
- The amount of racial diversity will influence certain conditional aspects.
- Population density will play a huge role in conditions during the American Reformation.
- The political climate and make up – especially at the local level – will influence conditions. Who you know and who you work for can play a role in weathering the storm.
- Communication via cell phone and landline will be unreliable at best depending on specific location.
Let’s look at the variety of conditions that will be present during the course of the American Reformation and what factors are involved. By the way I am not pulling these things out of my backside. Look at what has happened in other parts of the world where economies have collapsed and governments have changed:
Urban Areas:
High density populations in the city do not mean instant doom for all in bad economies and civil unrest. The majority of governmental assistance will go to those who live in populated areas. Why? One reason is positive publicity. Those who receive assistance via food, stipends, money, or whatever else will appreciate and be loyal to government agencies and talk to their friends about them in a positive manner. Basically the government can quell civil unrest and gain loyalty by paying people off – at least to a certain extent.
Imagine a situation where the Patriots are proclaiming the government being run by local Loyalists to be anti-freedom and anti-Constitution. If that government were to keep the power on, food coming in, and life as normal as possible they stand a much better chance maintaining support of the citizens.
In urban areas civil unrest including protests, riots, and looting will take place. Law enforcement will have a difficult time maintaining control thus private security forces will prove invaluable for larger companies and communities that can afford them. Curfews will be a frequent tactic used to control crime and the populace. Martial law? Only in the largest cities with the help of the National Guard. Any area with martial law declared will likely turn into a war zone as the limited resources of the government attempt enforcement.
Some cities will completely crumble. Those without electricity will create an economic tornado the likes of which have been rarely seen. Widespread poverty, violence, and complete desperation will be commonplace. Cats and dogs will be eaten for food and mass starvation will create significant population reduction.
The targeting of Patriot/Loyalist opposition will occur. If the area is populated mostly with Loyalists those that stand out as Patriots will be looked at closely. If some type of anti-Loyalist event occurs pro-Loyalist neighbors will inform government officials and law enforcement of the “Patriot guy that lives in the corner”. The reverse holds true as well in Patriot populated areas. Guerilla warfare will be the fighting style of choice.
Regardless of government assistance shortages will occur at some point as our just-in-time delivery system becomes bogged down, unreliable, and broken. This very well may happen due to sabotage between Loyalist and Patriot groups trying to effect the other. These shortages will include food, water, power, medical supplies, and security. Obviously those that can provide for themselves will make out much better than those who rely on others.
Violence based on racism will flourish especially in the inner cities as the morally challenged take advantage of low law enforcement presence.
Blending in will be a method for survival. Those that appear well off will be targeted while those who appear destitute will more often than not left alone. Light and cooking discipline will be extremely important in those areas with widespread power outages and poor conditions.
Prostitution will become a means for many women to survive and even thrive.
Robberies and home invasions will dramatically increase in urban areas as desperation sets in and law enforcement declines. There is safety in numbers. Those making trips to a grocery store or neighbors house will learn to do so in groups rather than as individuals. Walking and bikes will be a much larger mode of transportation as fuel will become more expensive and scarce. Even within the presence of police justice will be swift and outside of the law.
Depending on the specific region and geopolitical makeup of the area the existence for an individual living during the American Reformation will range from “almost normal” to “third world country”.
Living in the Country:
Living in the country may seem like the ideal situation. For those that have the means to provide essentials for themselves it will be. Those without their own food, water, electricity, medicine, and security things will be very bleak. Having a large food supply and a means to maintain it via gardening and animals such as chickens and rabbits will provide a significant barrier from the dramatic events going on around them.
The ability to grow food is extremely advantageous in the country given sufficient sunlight and water. Having animals such as chickens, rabbits and even cows have tremendous benefits to maintain a continuous supply of nourishment. Those without resources will face some of the same peril as those in the city. Gardens, animals, barns, and water tanks will be targeted for theft.
Those with wells and the means to pull water from them will have an advantage. Water will be frequently captured via rain barrels and pulled from ponds, streams, and lakes.
Security will be a different situation in the country than in the city. With the population density far lower there will be less opportunity to run into “40-year-old adolescents, felons, power drinkers, and trustees of modern chemistry.” This does not change the fact that security MUST be taken seriously and those living in the country will find that in order to keep what they have security will be of paramount importance. Groups of people will band together and form security details and maintain patrols. Although the chance of encountering people with dangerous intentions are lower in the country it WILL absolutely occur.
Dogs will be very important in the country. They will be used as early warning detection systems for intruders and those just “passing by” and act as a threat elimination device as well. Potential robbers and threats will often ignore properties that are being patrolled by dogs.
Vigilante justice will become commonplace as law enforcement resources diminish. When a crime occurs decisions will have to be made often without the assistance of a typical judge and jury. Some areas will be business as usual regardless of the changes going on in the country around them.
Exposure is huge. A house sitting alongside a country road sticks out and is obvious. There will be many incidences where violent attacks take place on those residing in country settings due to the inability to blend in and the isolation. Again – security to detect and defend is extremely important.
Those with night vision will have a significant advantage over those that don’t. This goes for both the homeowner as well as the predator. Read this paragraph again. Night vision is incredibly important.
The most threatening danger will come from people who appear to just want some assistance and appear non-threatening. Roving bands of brigands and criminal gangs will not often be evident while neighbors killing neighbors much more frequent.
Bottom Line: As a war is fought throughout the country between Patriots and Loyalists conditions will vary greatly in both cities and in the country. Preparation is critical for both.
Fairly reasonable if a little dark.. but the topic is dark .. and if we are uncomfortable with the possibilities it’s most likely because we are not where we need to be yet to deal with it.
Urban environments are huge as you said for visibility.. Just In Time inventory will be gone almost immediately then to be fed in the short term it will be about looting and scavenging for non preppers. Who wouldn’t if you kids were starving ?
It’s probably important to have a place to go, and go early with prepositioned supplies.. so you can travel quickly and without much attention. As you said .. blend in a and be gray.. trailers and cars loaded with goodies is not gray, or safe unless everything it armored .. maybe.
If not a BOL .. then security and food including water to Bug In.. and NOT come out at all.. Neither is perfect .. as fire can overcome both.. Plan accordingly.
Indeed Urban support will come first if they can get it to someone besides the gangs or “Loyalist Profiteers” and their cut. Which brings up black market.. have non paper money negotiables and products stored.. The goal being survival not what is right or wrong.. I doubt it will get that bad .. seriously.. but big cities could be the worst place to be at least initially… IMO .. store medicines as well of course .. docs will be unavailable or not safe to go see.. some people will be more equal than others.. Pharmacies will not likely be as available or have what you need (remember JIT).
I agree with the assessment of country living … and the will be little help from government if at all.. or long time coming.. You have to have a summer plan and a winter plan when electric and heat goes away. Cold and exposure can happen in your home .. not just out walking around. In the southern climes it won’t be as bad as middle and northern areas of course.. Heat and dehydration can be just as bad … if you are not conditioned to heat.
Physical conditioning is important, if we are able. Even in the country, survival if no bad guys at all show up is work. real hard work. Without conditioning of some kind to protect you from pain as well as injury, we could be at a serious disadvantage. Stamina or endurance and energy might make a real difference. The older you get, the harder it is to come by. IMO it is one of the most difficult preps as it is not $$ and is ongoing as well as accomplished only as a deliberate effort. Be deliberate. Anything is better than nothing… again .. no offense to anyone.. It is a daily struggle for me personally .. most days I win, some days I don’t, but is net positive. If nothing happens you still get more out of life and be healthier.. so it’s all good.
I think the important thing is to have a mindset that is effective.. the rest just follows if you are about your business preparing. We need to have thought through what we will do, and then do it, when needed. Hesitating can cause you huge problems. I can’t think of a single urgent event, nor most other events that is improved by waiting too long. Hesitation in illness is not better, hesitation in confrontations can appear to be weakness and is not good for the wrong people to see (which is anyone really). Hesitation is like running from a dog you don’t know .. any predator will chase that . two or four legged.
I doubt it will ever be that bad, but even if it is not we have to have thought about it so as not to fall in the “normalcy bias trap”. Because we wish or don’t want it to be a certain way, doesn’t mean that it isn’t. It means we just can’t accept it. That is most likely the most deadly thing, if your preps are fair. A life time of habits and preconceptions are sometimes difficult to overcome. We don’t have to like it, but we should accept it. Then we can do something about it.
GG58
Great topic .. I recommend reading/listening to all of the 299 days books and Mark Goodwin’s books. Again IMO for what it is worth.
Thanks GG58 – Good stuff all around. Upcoming in the series will be steps to preparing for the American Reformation among other things.
I’ve been preparing in one way or another for quite sometime. But finally broke down bought 299 Days book I. Read this weekend and bought the rest. I’m hooked on the book and with any knowledge & experience it’s easy to pick up on the value. You can just look around you and see each of the characters and incidents being described. What took me so long. He is pretty hung up on Glocks though. I’m a 1911 kind of guy, just old I guess.
Hey Gunner .. I agree,, BTW if not a Glock fan .. Try Arthur T Bradley’s – Survivalist series.. There is a character named Mason (U.S Marshall ) post apocalypse .. viral etc etc .. anyway be runs a Colt Supergrade.. Good character .. like a modern old west gun fighter .. 🙂 Tanner Raies is another good Character.. Survivalist type ..
Gunner – the 299 Days series is phenomenal and I believe very realistic right up there with American Exit Strategy.
Hey – I just picked up a 1911 a couple months ago – love it. You are not alone.
Great comments GG58, especially the point on hesitation. Waiting to see….that normalcy bias is hard to train your mind for.
Rourke- hoping you are 100 miles from the coast -re: Matthew. Praying for those who had to evacuate. Hoping you are ok. Lightning
Good post .
goinggray58. I am almost sure it’s a wilson supergrade in the book series.
Yessir .. it is a Wilson .. I went back and looked .. it was nothing me to.. but with all that it is a 1911 and not a Glock ..
Thanks
GG58