If the power grid went down, the government estimated that 90% of the population would die within a year.
How did they figure that out?
It was actually pretty straightforward. They looked at the population that could survive before electricity existed. Back then, the U.S. supported about 30 million people. That was the sustainable number.
So, saying 90% would survive a grid-down situation? That would be wildly optimistic.
Today, the food at your grocery store travels an average of 1,500 miles to get there. Most of our food comes from massive commercial farms or is imported from other countries, especially things like coffee and tropical fruits. I’ve seen steak in many grocery stores from Australia.
Before electricity, everything was local. Food came from nearby farms and gardens. Most people grew, raised, or made their own food. They were self-sufficient, resourceful, and tough because they had no other choice.
If you werenât tough, you didnât survive.
Now? Maybe 1,000,000 people in the entire country could live completely self-sufficient lives. Even fewerâless than 1%âcould band together and use their combined skills to build a community capable of surviving. For most people, the learning curve would be harsh, steep, and unforgiving.
Most people canât live without electricity. Many donât even know how to start thinking about survival. Basic skillsâlike starting a fire to stay warmâare foreign to them. This is especially true for those in cities, where survival skills are almost nonexistent.
Most people wouldnât know how to find, purify, or store water. Without these essentials, disease would spread rapidly. Illness would take over.
The governmentâs estimate of 90% dying is optimistic at best.
Remember the basic survival rules: you can survive 3 days without water and about 30 days without food(maybe). Yet, the average person goes to the grocery store 1-2 times per week and usually keeps less than three daysâ worth of food at home. Many have even less.
The weak and sick would die first.
The phrase âonly the strong surviveâ isnât quite right. In a desperate situation, only the ruthless survive.
As resources run out, desperate people will abandon their morals and ethics. Those willing to do whatever it takes will take control.
Within 90 days, most of the population would be gone or well on the way. Many survivors would become hardened, brutal, and without mercyâwhether for good or for bad. Thatâs the only way to make it through.
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Those who prepare ahead of time would fare much better than the general population. Geographic location, as well as population density, would be relevant. Local community make-up would be very important in the ability to survive. Just for $hits and grins, consider a complete grid collapse, and those living in the middle of Boston, Massachusetts, compared to those on the outskirts of Chester, SC. 650,000 people versus around 5,000. A population density of 13,841 versus 1,593. Common sense would suggest that Boston would be a maniacal Killzone compared to the country town of Chester, SC.
Even better would be Plymouth, Maine, with a population density of 45 people per square mile. But I digress.
Bottomline: We live in an unpredictable world and anything is possible. While most live in a world where “everything will be OK sweetheart” we know better. Numerous events here in the States as well as around the world have shown that bad thing s happen to regular, ordinary, good people.
So – stock up on food, water, medicine, and other supplies. Make plans to be able to fend for yourself and be as independent as possible. Be smart.
Take care all. We are in for a helluva ride.
Rourke
Very good post. My argument from the beginning has been to just look at how hard the Depression and war years (and post-war years for much of Europe) were for the people who lived through them. These were people who primarily had lived without central heating or indoor plumbing. They sewed or knitted their basic clothing. Even families in small towns had a small household garden, a fruit tree or two, and a handful of chickens. They walked everywhere. Used cisterns and rain barrels. They spent their lives living simply, and they still struggled. We no longer have the skills they learned as a normal part of life, and it’s coming time to pay the piper.
Good points SingleMom. People today lack the skills and I suspect even close to the determination to overcome struggle.
When I lived in Milton, NH and worked in S. Boston during the 80’s and we worried about Russia getting out of the city have been near impossible, My idea was have a canoe in my truck head for the pier and paddle along the coast and up the Isenglass river to Dover and have my wife pick me up. I figured 2-3 day trip.
I know of a few people who have considered of water as an escape route. Hope the current would have been with you….LOL. The Cold War seems like the good ole days now.
i think that a 10% survival rate is being optimistic. sadly, the lack of medicine and healthcare will account for many deaths early on. i have always said that the lack of potable water will affect tens of millions in just a few weeks. people will get thirsty and drink from anything that looks like water leading to disease. in high density areas if its cold people will build fires to stay warm. just one or two house fires could burn down entire areas. just look at LA now and there would be no help from emergency services to stop them. the 1906 S.F. earthquake was more devastated by fires than the earthquake its self, the 1871 Chicago fire killed hundreds.
the lack of food will kill the rest either from starvation or lead poisoning from trying to steal it.
we have at least 2 yrs of food stored and rotated and have been saving our seeds and replanting for years on 4 acres of garden spot. it’s always been a hobby for us just because it tastes better and we know where it comes from. and a good deep well. a small house on some bottom land that is well above any flood zones. a very good small community and everything is paid for now and no property taxes after this year ” yea ”
we didn’t plan it this way 40 yrs ago, it just happened.
God has been good to us. looking back now i can feel his hand on my shoulder guiding me here, maybe for a reason.
as long as a meteor or one of those cans of sunshine goes way long or way short we should be fine, if our health holds out, there is always that.
good luck all, and stay away from crowds
Thanks Geezer! Good words and makes a lot of sense. If – and that’s a big IF – things truly collapsed – I agree 10% is well overstated. Excellent point on the fires. Kass and I have been talking about setting up a firefighting system on the property. It needs to be a priority.
Food storage is often discussed, but, it is still not prioritized enough. Glad you mentioned seeds. Good points.
Thanks again.
Water will be the No.1 reason for death. The lack of it or the consumption of bad water resulting in dysentery or similiar and dehydration Lack of food takes a while, but you only have 3 days and you’re done without water. And don’t think you will be any good after 2 days out, you will be barely functioning. Electric runs the pumps and pumps deliver the water, it’s that simple. If it’s not available locally you are finished. Minimum quantity you should have is 1 gallon/day per person, and probably 4 to 6 weeks worth, so thats roughly 30-45 gallons per person. Many disaster/survival experts think that in 4 to 6 weeks 80-90% or more will perish. And thats about the time frame needed before things might stabilize enough for life to continue on a subsistence level. Pretty grim statistics. And those quantities are bare survival needs.
if we were to see a large fire coming in our direction we have planned for a controlled back-burn to keep the combustibles far, far away. we keep the woods cut pretty far back other than the yard, and thats just grass, most of everything else within 300 yds is in garden and i can plow that down in a emergency. but yea, if a large fire is coming a controlled back-burn will keep it away from your home. that’s what the forestry people do in our state. plow around it and set back-burns. it works well and the fires seldom go very far, we are in a heavily forested part of the country with LOTS of ground litter. you know, mulch HA HA.
ya’ll stay safe
this is an example of how much the local communities are important to recoveries after a disaster. New Orleans was and still is depended on FEMA to help, and it’s never recovered, the people in our great state of Mississippi were flattened by the 25 ft storm surge and high winds through Gulfport, Biloxi. Waveland, and 25 miles inland, we all pulled together to repair and build it back better than new in just a year while N.O. residents are still waiting for the Gov to come help after 20 yrs.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6367696573112
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpzYSCOM4Uo