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UPDATE: Coronavirus and the Economy

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Coronavirus Update: I’m in Georgia which is under a shelter in place order. So far it appears to me that people are limiting their travel but not eliminating it. I’ve been wearing N95’s and using tons of hand sanitizer. Most local businesses are closed with employees laid off. Service businesses – if they are open at all – are now curb-side-only. The majority of those businesses have let people go as they just don’t need the staffing. Word from people I know in a variety of industries shows massive projected drops in forecasted business(DUH!!) and even more layoffs than that which has already occurred.

I can’t help but question a lot of what has happened and what is happening regarding the virus. I’m not big on conspiracy’s, however, many things that just a few years ago I considered a “conspiracy” I can see as fact – or close to fact – today.

A few thoughts:

  • The Coronavirus Task Force continued to promote “15 Days to Stop the Spread” even well after it became obvious that 15 days was not going to be nearly enough.
  • Trump promoted that he could see the country start getting back to normal around Easter. He continued to talk this timeline even when it was obvious that the vast majority of the country would not be in the peak of the virus by that point.
  • Trump began to suggest that the Easter timeline was hopeful but the priority would be the health and welfare of the country. Basically – the country would not be opened up until it was safe to do so.
  • The Coronavirus Task Force extended the original “15 Days” to an additional 30 Days to Stop the Spread.
  • For weeks the CDC and Task Force stated there was no need for civilians to wear respirators or masks. This went against all commonsense to the vast majority of anyone who understands how the virus can spread. The CDC has now reversed this decision stating that it can be beneficial to use some type of garment or material to cover the mouth and nose.
  • Many states have issued Shelter in Place orders with varying degrees of the timeframe for the order to remain. In my state of Georgia, the order is said to go through April 13th. This makes no sense at all as the projected peak of the virus is to be somewhere around April 23rd.
  • Medical experts on the Coronavirus Task Force has continued to question and downplay the effectiveness of the hydroxychloroquine cocktail treatment which has shown tremendous promise with many patients that were nearly dead.
  • The Canadian Government has stated that the lockdown in that country will continue possibly until July. In the United States, we are looking at the end of April for the 30 Days to Stop the Spread to end. There is a significant timeframe difference here when geographically the two countries are literally side by side.
  • The Federal Government finally passed a nearly 3 trillion-dollar stimulus package which will be used to help citizens and businesses negatively affected by the shutdown. Many of use will be out of work for months. $1,200?
  • The Task Force is predicting between 100,000 – 200,000 Americans will die during this outbreak.
  • As of April 4th, 2020: United States cases – 308,312 / total deaths – 8,733

We keep hearing that it is important to get to the “peak” of this pandemic as once it arrives things will improve after that. Let me explain something. If the peak of the virus arrives April 24th, with roughly 4,200 people succumbing to the virus per day(just an estimate), there will be weeks that follow that will require sheltering in place in order to prevent the virus from making a comeback. During these weeks people will continue to get sick, require medical care – and yes, some will die in hopefully decreasing numbers(4200, 4000, 3800, 3500…..and so on).  This is the reason why the Canadian government is looking at the possibility that measures to control the spread of the virus will remain in place all the way into July.

For most of us, the real danger from this virus is NOT the virus itself but rather the economic damage affecting millions of households and businesses across the nation. Consider the fact we are are still early in this crisis and we are likely looking at a minimum of weeks to possibly another couple of months of severely reduced economic viability and massive unemployment. The long term impact on the economy and this country is going to be devastating. Whether it takes months or years the end game is drawing closer. The risk of economic collapse is certain. There is simply no way our financial system can bare the weight of trillions of dollars added to the national debt and the continued deficits to come.

What this means folks is once this pandemic is over…..it’s not over.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter in the comments below.

Take care folks and stay safe!

Rourke

…….coming soon!!!!

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18 Comments

  1. Vi says:

    Australia has had a small number of cases , but people aren’t listening, the police checked 300 self isolated citizens and 100 were out of. Public seriously??? Fines were given, that isn’t going to help people who get it.
    Word is probably July here, our state is taking a hard line, I truly believe people will die from the virus but alot will die or get sick from lack of food and appropriate medical care and housing . So many job losses , violence on the increase, and all those who have substance abuse problems and homeless on the streets is increasing with services being cut and distributed elsewhere. Supermarkets are NUTS ! limits on so many things it makes it hard to stay home and not shop regularly. New measures where they are restricting the number of people into the supermarket makes longer queues with large gaps for social distancing. I think the flow on effect from covid 19 will be around for years to come. With food shortages of fresh food due to the bushfires and now this ? Lack of demand for workers, low confidence in the govt . Life will get tougher for sure. I’ve noticed a boom in cooking from scratch, gardening, mending and people spending more time playing with their kids. These are just some of the few positive changes that I hope remain. Hold tight, I think it’s going to be a bumpy ride ! Stay safe !

    Reply
    1. JR says:

      Thanks, Vi. Good point that limits on items force people to make more visits to stores in order to ensure they have what they need.

      Reply
  3. Zenblaster says:

    Check out Chris Martenson from PeakProsperity dot com. We watched his almost daily videos since he started covering this in mid to late January.

    Reply
  4. John P says:

    JR, I agree completely, and it will take months or years to recover, the only light I see in the near future is bringing back manufacturing back to this country. I look at the situation now and feel China is out worse enemy, to me this is like having a dangerous neighbor and you get a gun to defend your self and family and rely on said neighbor to supply with ammo for the gun.

    Reply
    1. JR says:

      Excellent point John P about manufacturing coming back to America. That will certainly not only help from a strategic perspective to be more self-reliant on ourselves – but also better jobs for the people needing work.

      Reply
  5. SingleMom says:

    I’ve been worried about China for years, particularly after I learned about how much American land they’ve been buying up. It was clear that they had something in mind, because as far as I know, they haven’t built on most of that land and aren’t farming it, either.

    And I agree with Vi on the lack of food and medical care. Whether we like it or not, we’ve been tossed headfirst into the start of another Depression. Few people today know how to garden or sew or just make do with what they have, so things are going to be bad for a long time. How is the government going to support everyone who is newly out of work or the ones who are already on various benefits, whether it’s Welfare, Disability, or Social Security? Sooner or later, they’re going to have to start cutting those funds just to stay afloat.

    The government also keeps saying that we’re not having a food shortage, but if the food can’t get to the stores and is being destroyed where it was grown, then we most definitely DO have a shortage or will very soon, and with those shortages will come rising prices.

    Reply
      1. Oren says:

        It is truly ironic. For years my extended family (son, daughter, nephews, sister-in-law and niece) plus coworkers who I was willing to talk to, all thought I was crazy, had a bunker mentality. Wonder where they are now. My sister-in-law has started to talk about maybe I really do need a large garden this year. Potatoes are big on her list. My sister has all of a sudden seen the light. But too little too late. Once we get thru the lock downs, as I’ve told my sister, we need to start resupplying rapidly. Reason being is two fold.
        First, I think we will see another wave of this virus this coming “flu season”. It could be just as bad as this first wave.
        Second is a possible global upset caused by countries striking back at Wuhan China. Face it…China in one way or another allowed this virus to get out of hand. Either on purpose, or by bungling the effort in China and keeping everything undercover. Because of that, there are those in Congress that have already gone on record stating China will pay for this once this pandemic is over. The UK, Boris Johnson the PM has said China will pay and will be relegated to the position of a pariah country. I would imagine others are thinking the same thing. Now think about this. If a group of countries decide to slap China with strict sanctions or even more stringent methods, what do you think China is going to do? I do not see China laying down and taking it. I see some very ugly repercussions which could escalate rapidly. So yes. We need to all be preparing even more so NOW. I have my spring garden in already. I also have my plans for my fall and winter garden ready to go. Just hope I can get the seed for the winter garden when the time comes.

        Reply
  6. 3rdMan says:

    The worldwide, just not the U.S. economic damage will be worse than the virus. At the command level of LE, we have already begun talking about the next phase. The civil unrest and increasing crime rate that will most likely follow the damage caused by a long term shelter in place. These two major concerns will likely be fueled by a massive unemployment problem resulting from the long term shelter in place. The world is set to burn and it seem China may a some point become to focus of the rage in the form of war. So, keep toping off your preps wherever and whenever you can, while the delivers are still being made. The day may very well come that what you have is all you will every have. Stay safe out there!!!

    Reply
  7. MI Patriot says:

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist per se, but the timing of this whole covid thing makes sense in a way. The Dems have such a hatred of Trump that they would rather destroy our country than work with him. The Chinese also hate him for the tariffs he put on their goods. They hate him so bad that they went to the Chinese, said we need a favor and called in their markers. The Chinese put their collective heads together and went to town. And presto chango…coronavirus!!! It all went downhill from there. Our country has been brought to its knees without a single shot being fired. The job losses alone have been incredible and I see no evidence of it returning to normal anytime soon. Retirement funds are going down like the Titanic, and I think people are going to learn really fast what the Weimar Republic found out when they needed a wheelbarrow full of money just to buy a loaf of bread. I thank God every day that our house and our vehicles are paid for. We are in our 60s and collect social security so I am waiting for that to be cut to help pay the gov’t bills. Our son moved back home as he works in the auto industry and got laid off and no end in sight for him either.

    Our country needs to have a “come to Jesus” moment NOW!

    Reply
  8. tuesdayissoylentgreen day says:

    I have a sinking feeling that this 19 is a Black Swan, yes there is a virus or different strain of the flu being blamed for all the lockdown. But why shutdown the country?? for a bug that is very minor on the death field of the world compared to car wrecks, cancer ect… WHY did the gov call up the military reserves? OH , it is medical only… then why are Marine reserves in Houston called back that are Tank Commanders ect??
    WHY did the gov during a so called pandemic call on the Military forces to stop drugs from coming in the southern border??? Really, border had been running drugs for deckades… Something else is going on…

    Reply
  9. Arlene says:

    There was a woman Dr. in China who worked many years researching bats and corona. She was concerned about the illegal wet markets and the research going on at a Chinese lab with corona. She had been dubbed the bat Dr.
    She has since disappeared. My belief is that the virus ” accidentally” or not escaped from this lab.China is to blame for not telling the world. Our President and VP and DR. Fauci and Dr. Birx ( she has worked for many years in Africa etc. researching and she is a retired colonel in the military.
    These people are working 20 hours a day and they and all our hospital workers,( Dr.s nurses, aides, cleaners, janitors ,f ood service etc.) truckers, food store workers
    need our support and prayers.
    Truckers cannot get hot meals or have bathroom facilities as they truck our food across the country .These truck stops must be opened now. It is an outrage that milk is being dumped especially since it costs more to produce it that what our farmers are being paid. Those of us who have prepared will know that every penny spent is now a blessing.
    Stay well -please pray.Arlene

    Reply
  10. Arlene says:

    Maybe the world would have been better off to just let this virus rip . There will always be another virus coming and we had better be prepared for monkey pox and small pox, Arlene

    Reply
  11. D. says:

    Hmmm….Yep, the worst is yet to come.
    I started years ago moving and least half of my assets into storage and metals.
    I am in the process of moving another quarter into cryptocurrencies. Sorry to say it but I am betting on the apocalypse.
    As my income relies on three different govt. checks I am deeply concerned about those being cut back or eliminated. At the same time, I also don’t have any debt, that I am not prepared to immediately pay off and I carry no mortgage or car loans. I wish I was not deficient in some other areas, but became a bit complacent over the last decade. Hopefully my strengths can overcome my weaknesses.
    Cash will be king for a short while before it becomes valueless for most and we are forced back to a barter society for all but the mega rich. There are about to become two classes, us and them and all the violence and turmoil that entails.
    China. Yes, if not the major player in all this, they soon will be a target of retribution. She has been giving off signals for awhile of preparing for war. All the BS coming out of there is not for the world consumption but for their own captive populace, to justify what is to come. Hold tight, pray, and have hope.

    Reply
  12. Laurie Frey says:

    Hello fellow Americans, this whole thing ” stinks”, but seeing I’m not running for office anytime, I find these blogs VERY informative to have a ” birds eye ” view so to say, from actual People across the US, so we know from ” real ” people what’s “really happening in your areas . I find the stores ( mostly large chains ” labeling it ” Non-essential “, stopping any type of ” gardening” including…seeds!!! a concern, now we/family as preppers, have already started our food seeds weeks ago, but we have gone to get more, to ensure WE have our Own food source, in case…just in case, more stores adopt the same mentality of ” non-essential ) including seeds. I suggest you all do the same, so in closing…Be safe…Be healthy….Be prepared, Be AWARE and Thank you ALL for your input!!!…We will Survive…..

    Reply

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