UPDATE: Coronavirus and the Economy

Coronavirus Update: I’m in Georgia which is under a shelter in place order. So far it appears to me that people are limiting their travel but not eliminating it. I’ve been wearing N95’s and using tons of hand sanitizer. Most local businesses are closed with employees laid off. Service businesses – if they are open at all – are now curb-side-only. The majority of those businesses have let people go as they just don’t need the staffing. Word from people I know in a variety of industries shows massive projected drops in forecasted business(DUH!!) and even more layoffs than that which has already occurred.

I can’t help but question a lot of what has happened and what is happening regarding the virus. I’m not big on conspiracy’s, however, many things that just a few years ago I considered a “conspiracy” I can see as fact – or close to fact – today.

A few thoughts:

  • The Coronavirus Task Force continued to promote “15 Days to Stop the Spread” even well after it became obvious that 15 days was not going to be nearly enough.
  • Trump promoted that he could see the country start getting back to normal around Easter. He continued to talk this timeline even when it was obvious that the vast majority of the country would not be in the peak of the virus by that point.
  • Trump began to suggest that the Easter timeline was hopeful but the priority would be the health and welfare of the country. Basically – the country would not be opened up until it was safe to do so.
  • The Coronavirus Task Force extended the original “15 Days” to an additional 30 Days to Stop the Spread.
  • For weeks the CDC and Task Force stated there was no need for civilians to wear respirators or masks. This went against all commonsense to the vast majority of anyone who understands how the virus can spread. The CDC has now reversed this decision stating that it can be beneficial to use some type of garment or material to cover the mouth and nose.
  • Many states have issued Shelter in Place orders with varying degrees of the timeframe for the order to remain. In my state of Georgia, the order is said to go through April 13th. This makes no sense at all as the projected peak of the virus is to be somewhere around April 23rd.
  • Medical experts on the Coronavirus Task Force has continued to question and downplay the effectiveness of the hydroxychloroquine cocktail treatment which has shown tremendous promise with many patients that were nearly dead.
  • The Canadian Government has stated that the lockdown in that country will continue possibly until July. In the United States, we are looking at the end of April for the 30 Days to Stop the Spread to end. There is a significant timeframe difference here when geographically the two countries are literally side by side.
  • The Federal Government finally passed a nearly 3 trillion-dollar stimulus package which will be used to help citizens and businesses negatively affected by the shutdown. Many of use will be out of work for months. $1,200?
  • The Task Force is predicting between 100,000 – 200,000 Americans will die during this outbreak.
  • As of April 4th, 2020: United States cases – 308,312 / total deaths – 8,733

We keep hearing that it is important to get to the “peak” of this pandemic as once it arrives things will improve after that. Let me explain something. If the peak of the virus arrives April 24th, with roughly 4,200 people succumbing to the virus per day(just an estimate), there will be weeks that follow that will require sheltering in place in order to prevent the virus from making a comeback. During these weeks people will continue to get sick, require medical care – and yes, some will die in hopefully decreasing numbers(4200, 4000, 3800, 3500…..and so on).  This is the reason why the Canadian government is looking at the possibility that measures to control the spread of the virus will remain in place all the way into July.

For most of us, the real danger from this virus is NOT the virus itself but rather the economic damage affecting millions of households and businesses across the nation. Consider the fact we are are still early in this crisis and we are likely looking at a minimum of weeks to possibly another couple of months of severely reduced economic viability and massive unemployment. The long term impact on the economy and this country is going to be devastating. Whether it takes months or years the end game is drawing closer. The risk of economic collapse is certain. There is simply no way our financial system can bare the weight of trillions of dollars added to the national debt and the continued deficits to come.

What this means folks is once this pandemic is over…..it’s not over.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on the matter in the comments below.

Take care folks and stay safe!

Rourke

…….coming soon!!!!

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