It’s appearing that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is imminent. As of this writing, Russia has stationed well over 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and has also moved ships to the area. Russia has literally begun to encircle Ukraine with military activities north, east, and south.
What impact will an invasion have on us? Well, nothing good. Beyond that, we can make a few educated guesses:
A Russian invasion will cause a wave of instability to circle through global financial markets. Next up we will see a spike in an already inflated oil market and along with that more inflation due to higher transportation costs. Assuming the threat of massive sanctions against Russia is carried out – the threat of nation-sponsored cyberattacks here in the United States is almost a certainty. Lastly – the relationship between Russia and China will grow stronger.
The United States will NOT get in a direct conflict with Russia over Ukraine. There’s no indication of this nor is there any reason. I am most concerned about the potential effects of cyberattacks here in the states. Cyberattacks offer a certain level of denial. Putin can strike at the West – while denying any knowledge or involvement.
Raising fuel prices. Continued supply chain issues. More inflation. Cyberattacks.
Prepare accordingly.
Rourke
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Tiawan is the objective, Ukraine is the distraction! China will block any economic hardship on Russia, by sanctioning any country or company that follows the US sanctions against Russia. Most of the support for Russia inside Ukraine is east of the Dnieper River, so I could also see Russia splitting the country and linking up with Crimean Peninsula.
I think Taiwan and Ukraine are mutual objectives.
Russia has all but taken Belarus in the last week and they just nodded.
I have seen a couple reports and from the National Security Advisor’s mouth … “Biden is not prepared to provide support to any that have not evacuated and no direct military response beyond donating some US lives to wear blue helmets. Sacrificial at best. Big impacts in Oil and Electronics. I would not be surprised if it works for them, that North Korea and certainly the middle east do something similar or try. They are already making noise. Our country is rudderless and just looking for something to crash into. When the convoy works it’s way south of Canada… it’ll be more upset. Financial upset certainly as you mentioned. Social upset as well … possibly severs. And certainly even more and more severe logistics problems getting things distributed to businesses.. Oh then there is inflation worse that it’s been in 40 years (7.5%).
It now takes 5 days to get an overnight shipment delivered and i am not all that far out in the sticks. Prepare, and plan.. have it in your head if not on paper, what you will do when and if. Communicate it to folks you trust and are affected.
Make no mistake it will still get worse near term..
Upside I have seen it turning back the other direction for about 6-8 weeks now.. maybe a little more. I suspect it has as much to do with midterm election panic and large dem defection numbers as anything else.
Stay frosty friends..
GG58
John, the Baltic countries best get together to protect themselves as I do no believe Mayo will do anything unless th U S gets involved and as GG58 said we are rudderless and as far as I’m concerned the engine is broken. Cyber attacks for sure as well as higher prices and more supply shortages. China and Russia both see us as week and will fully exploit those weaknesses and will be followed by other countries who do not like us, it’s going to be a rough ride, hopefully we will survive it.